|Wednesday, November 3, 2004|
Indeed, why did the exit polls in the more critical battleground states end up being so far from reality? Need to get the final breakdowns and do research on this later. I suspect Florida and Ohio are the two states with the most skewed election results compared to exit polls. Just a hunch.
The exit polls missed the mark very badly last night (before they were reweighted to correspond to the actual results). The national exit poll consistently showed Kerry leading by 3 points--just the reverse of the actual vote. The Ohio exit poll had Kerry up by 4 and the Florida exit poll had it tied.
What happened? Some combination of bad precinct samples, resopnse bias, or failing to accurately account for early and absentee votes must have been at work. Whatever it was, it was a major problem. In 2000, the national exit poll also overestimated Gore's vote, but not by nearly as big a margin.
What does it mean for the poll results to be "reweighted"? The numbers weren't matching the actuals being reported, so the pollsters scrambled to make them look better to save face?
I'm not about to play the conspiracy card, but over at blackboxvoting.org they're sending Freedom of Information Act requests to obtain computer logs, audit trails, voting reports and other documents. Now, wouldn't it at least be fascinating to validate the election results in Florida? You'd think the President would welcome the opportunity to have his results certified by an third party, right?
For reference here's a snapshot of the original early afternoon numbers from Slate (Dated Tuesday, Nov. 2, 2004, at 4:28 PM PT):
8:26:04 PM comment  trackback 
Electing to leave
Let's not get hasty now. We all still live and were born in this country and it's here to serve everyone, not just the conservative agenda.
5:08:39 PM comment  trackback 
Some uneasy worries I will still have many days after today:
Only time will tell...
1:20:42 PM comment  trackback 
The echo chamber
Did all of us in the blogosphere fall prey to too many pats on the back? Did we blind ourselves to the possibility that this was coming? Andrew Leonard thinks so. I'm inclined to agree.
1:11:17 PM comment  trackback